Probability, Econometrics and Truth

When John Maynard Keynes likened Jan Tinbergen''s early work in econometrics to black magic and alchemy, he was expressing a widely held view of a new discipline. However, even after half a century of practical work and theorizing by some of the most accomplished social scientists, Keynes'' comments are still repeated today. This book assesses the foundations and development of econometrics and se...