Calibrated Delusions: The Mathematical Bias of Human Confidence

Human beings are notoriously terrible at judging their own abilities, but our miscalculations are not random. We suffer from a highly specific, predictable mathematical glitch known as the Hard-Easy Effect. When faced with an incredibly complex, near-impossible task like predicting the stock market or managing a massive corporate merger we bizarrely overestimate our chances of success. Yet, when...